The Most Overrated Players in 2019 NFL Free Agency

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Free agency should—and often does—resemble the stock market. 

You want to buy what you believe to be rising and part ways with or avoid what you think is declining. But when free-agent signing season kicks off March 13, a lot of teams will make the mistake of investing in plummeting or toxic assets.

Teams should think twice before breaking the bank for the following 10 players, all of whom are projected to hit the open market and have been the subject of oodles of hype but possess various red flags.

    

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Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Nick Foles might be the most accomplished signal-caller to hit the open market in March, but there’s reason to wonder if the 30-year-old can suddenly experience sustained success for the first time in his NFL career. 

Somebody will likely pay Foles a comical amount of money because he’s a “winner” who helped lead the Eagles on a shocking championship run in 2017 and an unexpected playoff run in 2018. But he struggled in this year’s postseason, his rate-based numbers haven’t been good during his second stint in Philly, and he’s never been that successful outside of three short streaks. 

Streak 1 took place when Foles was a sophomore under then-head coach Chip Kelly in 2013. He posted a 24-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 118.9 passer rating over a 10-start stretch between mid-October and the end of the regular season. 

Streak 2 took place when Foles helped the Eagles claim their first Lombardi Trophy 13 months ago, posting a 6-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 115.7 rating in three playoff starts before winning Super Bowl MVP in place of the injured Carson Wentz. 

And Streak 3 took place when he lit up opponents, once again in relief of Wentz, in three consecutive win-or-go-home victories to close out the 2018 regular season before putting up awful numbers in the playoffs. 

Those hot stretches account for roughly a quarter of Foles’ career on the field. He was a turnover machine with the Eagles in 2012 and 2014, and he was a disaster with the then-St. Louis Rams in 2015 (7-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio). He was nothing more than Alex Smith’s backup with the 2016 Kansas City Chiefs. 

What are the odds Foles permanently becomes what he was late in 2017 and for a couple of months in 2013? A team will probably pay him top dollar with those expectations, but there’s a strong chance he never finds that magic again. 

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Keith Srakocic/Associated Press

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell will now definitely hit the free-agent market, and when that happens, he’ll almost certainly be the most famous player in that space. But there are several reasons to resist the temptation to spend big bucks on the three-time Pro Bowler. 

Here are four: 

1. He’s a running back. This year’s Pro Bowl contained an undrafted rookie running back (Phillip Lindsay), a third-round sophomore running back (James Conner) and another third-round sophomore running back (Alvin Kamara). A season before that, the leading rusher was—you guessed it—a third-round rookie running back (Kareem Hunt). It’s just too easy to find high-quality backs, and the position lacks value as a result of that as well as the pass-heavy nature of this era. 

2. His tires have lost plenty of tread. Running backs also have notoriously short shelf lives, and between 2013 and 2017 only one player (LeSean McCoy) had more total touches than Bell. And while Bell did avoid plenty of bumps and bruises while sitting out in 2018, he still aged another year. And Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News reported that the 27-year-old gained 35 pounds during his hiatus from professional football. 

3. His numbers may have been beginning to decline in 2017. While Bell was an All-Pro in his most recent season, his yards-per-attempt average plummeted from 4.9 in 2016 to 4.0 the following year. He averaged nearly 20 fewer rushing yards per game and saw his rate-based receiving numbers drop off. 

4. The Steelers offense was just as strong without Bell in 2018. Pittsburgh averaged 25.4 points per game and 5.8 yards per play with Bell a member of the active roster in 2017, but without him, those totals increased to 26.8 and 6.1 in 2018. 

Don’t do it. I know it’s tempting, but don’t give this guy a big check. 

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New Orleans Saints running back Mark Ingram II won’t get as much love as Bell on the open market, but he probably shouldn’t get any love at all. At 29, the two-time Pro Bowler is older yet less accomplished than Bell, and he’s coming off a so-so season that was marred by a four-game PED suspension. 

Ingram is a big name who will be the subject of plenty of media/fan hype in March, but don’t be surprised if teams keep their distance considering his age as well as that suspension.

Throw in that his recent success might be exacerbated by the fact that he was one of several weapons in a stacked New Orleans offense, and it’s fair to wonder what the 2011 first-round pick would have left in him elsewhere. 

Rather than paying Ingram even $2-3 million a year, a team in need of help would be better off spending less than $1 million on a middle-round pick at the running back position. 

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It’s easy to become enamored by U-Haul-sized New England Patriots offensive tackle Trent Brown, especially considering that the 6’8″, 380-pounder is only 25 years old and coming off a relatively strong season on Tom Brady’s blind side with the Super Bowl champions.

But there are plenty of legitimate reasons to be concerned about Brown, especially if he’s outside of New England. 

The 2015 seventh-round pick failed to make a positive impact with the San Francisco 49ers during his first three seasons in the league. And while he fared much better after joining the Pats in 2018, he still lacked consistency, and he may have benefited greatly from his environment. 

Michael Renner of Pro Football Focus wrote:

“He was average by pretty much all of our metrics. He earned a 66.9 overall grade and ranked 30th out of 57 qualifying tackles in pass-blocking efficiency. The latter of which is undoubtedly helped by Tom Brady having the fifth-fastest average time to throw in the NFL. If Brown leaves New England and offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia, I’m not sure you’ll see the same quality results.”

Brown will likely be overpaid with that body coming out of New England, and he’ll continue to be a liability when tasked with blocking speed rushers. 

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Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Trent Brown isn’t the only 25-year-old left tackle who struggles with speed on the edge and is likely to be paid big bucks in free agency. There’s also 2015 second-round pick Donovan Smith, who will be in high demand at a position that lacks supply if the Bucs let him hit the open market in a couple of weeks. 

To Smith’s credit, he’s yet to miss a start in four seasons. But that doesn’t mean he’s been good. 

“Though health hasn’t been a concern, Smith’s performance when healthy hasn’t been pretty, as he’s earned sub-65.0 overall grades in each of his four seasons in the NFL,” PFF’s Austin Gayle wrote earlier this month. “His pass-blocking grades have improved in the last two years, but he’s still allowed 42-plus pressures every year of his career.”

Smith lacks quickness and athleticism, and he probably isn’t worth whatever he’ll get from a desperate team in search of a semblance of stability on the blind side. 

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Detroit Lions defensive end Ezekiel Ansah has a Pro Bowl on his resume and a pair of 12-plus-sack seasons, which could make the 2013 No. 5 overall pick an attractive target on the free-agent market. 

But Ansah will turn 30 in May, though there’s speculation—fueled most recently by a media report in his home country of Ghana—that the six-year veteran might be a year or two older than his NFL-listed age. 

Ansah has also lacked consistency. He’s coming off his second disappointing season in a three-year span. He’s missed 14 games the last three years because of injury. And he’s still recovering from the second major shoulder injury of his career. 

Ansah might wind up with a large payday because he’s a talented and relatively accomplished player at a premium position, but it’s hard to see that being a smart investment right now. 

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Practically every offseason, you’ll see vultures willing to pay premium dollars for non-premium players coming off Super Bowl seasons. That could be the case with Brown in New England, and it’ll likely be the case with Los Angeles Rams defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. 

Suh will also benefit from the fact that he performed well late in the year as well as in the playoffs. But the reality is he was rarely his dominant self for the vast majority of his inaugural campaign in Los Angeles, and it appears the nine-year veteran has lost at least a step at the age of 32. 

He’s a well-accomplished big-name player with a strong pass-rushing presence inside, and he made several notable plays during L.A.’s run to Super Bowl LIII, where it lost to New England. That’ll cause a desperate squad to give him a deal that pays him at least $10 million in 2019, but there’s a good chance that team will regret that decision. 

Suh’s stock is declining fast, and potential 2019 employers would be better off saving their money and going the draft route or investing in a young interior defensive lineman on the rise. Darius Philon of the crosstown Los Angeles Chargers comes to mind. 

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This offseason, veteran Philadelphia Eagles defensive back Ronald Darby might benefit greatly from the fact that the free-agent pool is projected to be stupid-shallow at the cornerback position. 

Kareem Jackson (turning 31 in April), Brent Grimes (36 in July) and Captain Munnerlyn (31 in April) are too old. Bryce Callahan and Darqueze Dennard are slot guys. And it’s fair to wonder if Pierre Desir was a one-hit wonder last season in Indianapolis. 

That might leave Darby as the clear-cut No. 1 corner slated to hit the market, even though he missed 15 of 32 regular-season games during his two seasons with the Eagles. 

The Buffalo Bills’ 2015 second-round pick is still only 25 years old, and he was part of that unforgettable 2017 Super Bowl team in Philly. That could help compensate for the fact that he’s still recovering from a torn ACL and he’s never played a complete season in his four-year career. 

Overlooking issues with injuries and inconsistency would be a mistake, though. Under the current circumstances, Darby isn’t worth more than a one-year prove-it contract. But because the corner market is nearly barren and he’s a 25-year-old with a playmaking history and a Super Bowl ring, he’ll likely get a better deal than that.

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Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Earl Thomas might one day be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, but that doesn’t mean he’s a good investment at this point in his career. 

The six-time Pro Bowler will turn 30 in May, he’s recovering from a serious leg injury, and he’s missed 19 games the last three seasons. Even if he’s healthy well before the start of the 2019 season, there’s a good chance he won’t be the same player he was in his 20s. 

He’s also the biggest name on a deep list of pending free-agent safeties, which could drive up the price for a superstar already accustomed to making eight figures. And if things go awry in a new environment, how long will it take before Thomas makes his discontent known? This is, after all, a dude who flipped the bird toward his own sideline in 2018 and entered an opponent’s locker room in an attempt to lobby for himself in 2017. 

Thomas’ prime is likely in the past. He hasn’t been an All-Pro since 2014, and the support he enjoyed as part of the Legion of Boom helped him reach his peak. He might join a strong defense elsewhere, but it’s doubtful he’ll ever benefit from that kind of support again. 

The chips are stacked against him. 

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Landon Collins is younger than Thomas and has a less concerning injury history, but there are still reasons to wonder if he’s worth a big-money free-agent contract this March. 

The 25-year-old New York Giants safety was a stud as a sophomore in 2016, recording five interceptions, four sacks and 125 tackles in an All-Pro campaign. But he has generally failed to stand out in each of his other three seasons. He had just three picks and zero sacks in 2015, 2017 and 2018 combined. 

A pro personnel scout told ESPN.com’s Jordan Raanan in December that Collins is “good” but not “elite,” adding that he’s a “solid starter that can make some impact plays.” 

Collins can sometimes be a liability in coverage, and it doesn’t help that he’s recovering from major surgery on his left shoulder. 

Is he versatile or even reliable enough to merit an eight-figure salary and/or a blockbuster contract with a hefty guarantee? We’re not convinced.

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