How Celtics’ Playoff Push Could Impact Kyrie Irving’s Free Agency
Aaron Gash/Associated Press
For most of the league, Kyrie Irving‘s free agency won’t begin until July 1, after he declines his player option and can officially make a decision. For the Boston Celtics, though, the process is already underway.
Every other potential suitor is competing for Irving’s affections from afar. The Celtics are vying for his services from the inside. They’re not so much auditioning to keep him as not to lose him. And despite what the rumor mill has tried to lay bare, their postseason push stands to be a, if not the, chief determining factor.
It isn’t supposed to be like this for Boston. Irving’s free agency was deemed a non-issue not even five months ago. He declared his allegiance to the organization before the regular season tipped off, and the Celtics had a big-picture chokehold over the Eastern Conference before LeBron James ever left for Hollywood.
But time has a way of eroding at preconceived notions, and recent events portray Irving’s return as a real question mark, much less a sure thing.
Boston has veered off its initial trajectory, regressing from a will-be superpower to should-be, could-be, yet-will-it-be title contender. And on the rare occasions Irving has indulged free-agency speculation with something resembling candor—rather than deflection and opaqueness—his answers are non-committal at best and alarming at worst.
“Ask me July 1,” he said ahead of the Celtics’ Feb. 1 game against the New York Knicks, per ESPN.com’s Ian Begley. Pressed further, he continued to equivocate:
“I still have confidence in Boston and what they can promise for the future and what they have in terms of our pieces. That’s what excited me a lot about the beginning of the season, was the opportunity to come into this season and doing what we planned on doing. Set a goal and go after it. And then see what happens at the end of the season. That was the plan before, and that’s still the plan now. Obviously, Boston’s still at the head of that race. So that’s just where it stands.”
The Knicks loom as the Celtics’ biggest threat. They have access to two max slots, and Irving put them on his wish list when orchestrating his exit from the Cleveland Cavaliers. During a recent appearance on The Hoopshype Podcast, Yahoo Sports’ Chris Haynes reiterated that while Boston remains the favorite to sign Irving, “New York always been in play” (h/t Celtics Wire’s Quenton S. Albertie).
Indecision is Irving’s right as a soon-to-be free agent. Just as he shouldn’t be surprised or rankled by the interest in his future, we cannot be shocked or feel cheated by his ask-me-later stance. People change their minds, and the Celtics, by many measures, are in a more precarious position than they were over the offseason.
That doesn’t sound entirely right. Ascribing so much value to the postseason implies a free fall, and the Celtics are neither hapless nor hopeless.
A complicated pecking order has made for a complicated season in Boston.Michael Reaves/Getty Images
Fifth place in the East is nothing to celebrate, but their record cannot be conflated with their ceiling. Boston is fifth in defensive efficiency and third in net rating, behind only the Golden State Warriors and Milwaukee Bucks. The offense lacks a certain consistency but ranks fourth in points scored per 100 possessions since Dec. 1, over which time the Celtics own the NBA‘s fifth-highest winning percentage.
Even their matchups against the tippy-top of the East suggest they’re in pretty good shape. Anchored by a 3-0 series lead over the Philadelphia 76ers, the Celtics are a combined 7-4 against them, the Bucks, the Indiana Pacers and the Toronto Raptors.
Still, attaching significance to Boston’s postseason performance is not some misplaced impulse.
This team is battling through more ups and downs than the typical squad. Maybe that’s because the Celtics are supposed to be transcendent rather than just good. Or perhaps even they’re overreacting to regular-season letdowns.
“Nah, I think we gotta pick [the energy] up. And we know it. Everybody knows it,” Jaylen Brown said following Saturday’s loss to the Chicago Bulls, per Forbes’ Russell Dorsey. “We played a tough, hard-nosed game against Milwaukee. We didn’t come with the same energy that we had against Milwaukee [against Chicago]. We can’t just click it on when the playoffs start.”
The Celtics are now below .500 away from home, including 2-9 against teams above .500. Six of their remaining 12 road games come versus such opponents, and they have one of the league’s seven toughest schedules overall, according to PlayoffStatus.com.
That’s not necessarily a harbinger of doom. Irving, for one, isn’t worried about it:
Celtics on NBC Sports Boston @NBCSCeltics
Kyrie still doesn’t see anyone beating the Celtics in 7 games (Presented by https://t.co/Av8GdCiYr0 ) https://t.co/8rwntIKrCa
At the same time, the Celtics’ problems, white collar though they seem, cannot be shrugged off. Their most damning issues are not rooted in scheme or schedule, but in causes much less measurable.
Establishing an offensive pecking is an ongoing battle. Moving Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward to the bench has helped. Both are showing out relative to their early-season struggles. But Irving remains the lone constant.
Filter out for small samples, and he has led Boston in usage rate each month. With the exception of Marcus Smart, the order of almost every core player behind him has routinely shifted:
| Boston’s Shifting USG% Leaders Behind Kyrie | ||||
| Jayson Tatum (2) | Jayson Tatum (2) | Jaylen Brown (2) | Jayson Tatum (2) | Jaylen Brown (2) |
| Marcus Morris (3) | Jaylen Brown (3) | Jayson Tatum (3) | Jaylen Brown (3) | Jayson Tatum (3) |
| Gordon Hayward (4) | Marcus Morris (4) | Marcus Morris (4) | Gordon Hayward (4) | Al Horford (4) |
| Jaylen Brown (6) | Terry Rozier (5) | Al Horford (5) | Marcus Morris (5) | Terry Rozier (7) |
| Al Horford (7) | Al Horford (6) | Gordon Hayward (7) | Al Horford (6) | Marcus Morris (8) |
| Terry Rozier (10) | Gordon Hayward (7) | Terry Rozier (9) | Terry Rozier (7) | Gordon Hayward (9) |
| Stats via NBA.com. | ||||
Injuries and rotation changes impact the returns, but the absence of constants takes aim at Boston’s depth. More talent has not amounted to continuity.
Less explainable is the supporting cast’s performance without Irving—both in games he plays and misses. As Dean Oliver, author of Basketball on Paper, pointed out:
Dean Oliver @DeanO_Lytics
When Kyrie plays in a game then goes off the court, his teammates do worse.
When Kyrie _does not play_ in a game, his teammates do better.
That is weird. Can’t adjust style in game after playing w/him? It’s both O and D, essentially all his teammates. I don’t think it’s sched. https://t.co/h5Vsy561gh
The search for answers to this turbulence is entrenched in variance. The Celtics’ inconsistency cannot be attributed to any one player. It is everything and almost everyone.
It is Hayward’s gradual return to form. It is Brown facing arguably a steeper learning curve than anyone within a full-strength rotation. It is Terry Rozier being expected to do less and struggling to deliver in a contract year. It is Jayson Tatum being billed for superstardom, as a sophomore, on a team not yet ready to facilitate that leap.
It is, collectively, the Celtics grappling with dueling developments.
That’s what Irving addressed more than anything else during his sit-down with ESPN’s Rachel Nichols:
Rachel Nichols @Rachel__Nichols
Kyrie Irving sits down to talk about the Celtics’ “trying” season: “we have a bunch of young men in our locker room who feel they’re capable of doing a lot more than they’re doing.” We also talked free agency, the LeBron phone call, & how anger can fester if you don’t address it https://t.co/VGNqkifWnk
He threw no shade when saying Boston has “a bunch of young men in our locker room who feel they’re capable of doing a lot more than they’re doing.” He nutshelled the greatest obstacle impeding this team.
The Celtics are not stocked with players who refuse to win on anything but their own terms. They are, however, predominantly built around those who aren’t secure enough in their future to embrace concession without a second thought.
Tatum is about to turn 21, already billed as a future superstar and just starting out. Brown, 22, is in a similar position and extension-eligible this summer. Rozier is playing for his next contract. Morris is set to be a free agent as well. Hayward is still trying to be the player who, as intended, pushes the Celtics over the top.
Shared timelines are underrated when talking about players with extensive resumes and foregone paydays. Kevin Durant (player option), Klay Thompson and Draymond Green (extension-eligible) don’t have to be concerned with cannibalizing one another’s market value.
Horford and Irving have that luxury in Boston. So, too, does Marcus Smart after signing a four-year, $52 million deal last summer. Pretty much everyone else is in some sort of limbo.
Whatever that’s doing to the Celtics now will probably persist into the postseason. They’re roughly three-quarters of the way through the schedule. This tug-of-war is more likely an ingrained hazard than temporary roadblock.
Boston is good enough to come out of the East anyway, if only because the rest of the conference’s contenders have not pulled away. The Raptors almost parallel the Celtics in that way. They’re still finding themselves around Kawhi Leonard, but the wins keep coming and no one will be taken aback if they reach the NBA Finals. The Bucks come closest to being untouchable, and even their supporting cast is absent a traditional co-star.
This truncated hierarchy may also work against the Celtics. It decreases the likelihood they enjoy a gimme playoff series. Stay in fifth place, and they may need to go through the Sixers, Bucks and Raptors to get out of the conference.
Getting bounced in the first or second round won’t do anything to help their chances of re-signing Irving. And yet, because of how neck and neck the East’s premier squads are with each other, it’s hardly possible to define a successful push.
What does it really say about the Celtics if they lose to Philly in Round 1 or versus Milwaukee in the conference finals? Not one of the East’s primary powers are better than the rest for a series to be viewed in demonstratively lopsided terms. Losing in the first or second round could equate to falling in the conference finals depending on how the postseason brackets shake out.
Can the Celtics still turn Irving’s free agency into a non-issue?Aaron Gash/Associated Press
Whether the Celtics show signs of coming together matters just as much as when and against whom they fall. Maybe they bow out in the second round, but Hayward plays like Hayward, the offense successfully navigates Kyrie-less minutes and Brown effectively closes more games. Perhaps Tatum plays so well that an Anthony Davis trade becomes a formality, or Brown breaks out so hard Boston gains the ammo to strike that deal without the former’s inclusion.
Indeed, when it comes to Irving’s return, the Celtics are facing factors beyond their on-court progress. If his future is at all tied to Davis’ next destination, their postseason conclusion carries only so much weight.
Balking on Tatum’s inclusion could be a turnoff. The Knicks could win the lottery and have the flexibility to sign Durant while matching or exceeding Boston’s best Davis package. Irving could be so set on teaming up with Durant that he’ll leave Boston come championship or first-round exit.
Of course, if the Celtics were the Eastern Conference juggernaut they’re supposed to be, chances are this isn’t a discussion. They might still be contemplating the opportunity cost of adding Davis this summer, but Irving’s October declaration wouldn’t feel like it came one lifetime and two to four different versions of the Celtics ago.
For that, Boston is paying dearly. There can be no going back. The regular season is too far gone to enter the playoffs towering over the field. The Celtics have given the rumors and doubts room enough to endure.
In lieu of winning the regular season, they have the playoffs. And while the title-or-bust expectations assigned to their season give them a non-negotiable destination, Irving’s free agency is tied tighter to the process by which they rise or fall.
If excess is their undoing, or the hurdle they must overcome to win, his future may hinge on Davis’ arrival or another consolidation of talent. If they exit the postseason without citing the same lack of energy and cohesion, then, well, they’re still guaranteed nothing.
But they’ll at least ensure Irving’s decision is less about what they haven’t given him.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com or Basketball Reference and accurate leading into games on Feb. 25. Salary and cap-hold information via Basketball Insiders and RealGM.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by SLC Dunk’s Andrew Bailey.
Hall of Famer Rick Barry joins Howard Beck for The Full 48’s 100th episode to discuss how he almost played for the Celtics, why the Warriors’ dominance is good for the NBA and why James Harden needs to change if he hopes to win a title.
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